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Most of the and fuel costs (depending on the price of oil). metric tonnes of cobalt or a tripling of total
cobalt for See Figure 2 for a 2015 comparison by the con- global cobalt production. Converting half of
the global vehicle fleet to EV would require the
sulting firm Arthur Little.
electric cars With tax incentives and rebates, the cost globe to produce fifteen times more cobalt than
comes from of electric vehicles has fallen substantially in it does today.
what is the past five years, with the average cost dif- Therein lies the real problem: a massive
ference between an ICE vehicle and EV closer increase in the production of electric vehicles is
euphemistically to 15-20 percent over a ten- to twenty-year life going to run into a major supply crunch, both in
referred to as of the vehicle in net present value terms, using terms of the type of electricity produced and the
a standard discount rate. For the time being, amount of cobalt mined. We’ll need to burn a
an artisanal however, the fact remains that EVs cost more lot more fossil fuel to produce all the electricity
mine. Don’t to purchase and run. we’ll need for the “clean” electric car.
kid yourself, INCONVENIENT FACT: COBALT Cobalt mining is particularly worrisome in

this is code The next inconvenient reality has to do with that some 65 percent or two-thirds of the world’s
mined cobalt supply comes from one place, the
for a child the material composition of an EV engine versus Democratic Republic of Congo in sub-Saharan
in a mud pit an internal combustion (IC) engine. An electric Africa. Most of the cobalt for electric cars comes
vehicle uses about three times more copper than
from what are euphemistically referred to as
guarded by an an IC engine and substantially more nickel and artisanal mines. Don’t kid yourself—this is code
overseer cobalt than a traditional internal combustion for a child in a mud pit guarded by an overseer
engine forged of machine steel.
(usually a Nickel and cobalt are the key elements used (usually a teenager) with an automatic rifle.
Here is the reality for politicians and ce-
teenager) in the cathode chemistry of most electric vehicle lebrities who have already decided that the age
with an batteries today. The typical electric vehicle uses of the green clean electric vehicle is here. The
about five kilograms of cobalt (ten to eleven
automatic rifle. pounds). (Ironically, the other major industrial global supply chain and energy infrastructure
are nowhere ready or prepared to handle the
use for cobalt is in the production of catalysts paper electric revolution.
to remove sulfur from crude oil during the oil
refining process.) LITHIUM TO THE RESCUE?
Total annual consumption of cobalt today That being said, it doesn’t mean that the
is roughly 265 million metric tonnes, with noble vision of a cleaner and healthier planet.
batteries making up about half the total global The most exciting development is new technolo-
cobalt demand. Each 10 percent conversion of gies that shift the battery chemistry away from
the global vehicle fleet will require 700 million
nickel and cobalt to more abundant lithium. But
many of these emerging technologies are five to
ten years away from being fully commercial.
The type of technological and energy
infrastructure revolution required to support
the much-touted green energy revolution is
unfortunately twenty-five to thirty years away.
Even that is probably a bit on the optimistic side
as it assumes a relatively stable political and
financial environment. As the last three months
taught us, despite an extended period of peace
and prosperity, uncertainty is always lurking
around every corner, door knob or hand rail, as
the case may be.

FIGURE 2: Total Cost of Ownership over a 20-year lifetime for a 2015 James Kirkpatrick is a mechanical engineer
ICEV versus an equivalent BEV (battery electric vehicles) and energy analyst serving as president of JKF
Source: Arthur D. Little, 2015 Associates.
68 Wise Traditions SUMMER 2020